St. Louis Cardinals New Lineup won't Work

Before Monday's contest with the Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals manager and future hall-of-famer Tony La Russa decided he had to make a change.

There have been reports that he was given a suggestion by All-Star first baseman Albert Pujols.  Others believe that La Russa logged on to stltoday.com and checked out a blog written by St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz. 

$17 Million LF

Either way, La Russa made the switch in hopes to jump start his $17 million left-fielder by moving Matt Holliday into the 3-hole and 3-time National League MVP Albert Pujols to clean-up. 

The move worked like magin on Monday evening, but over the long haul of the season, this lineup WILL NOT WORK!  Keep reading to find out why. 
La Russa himself said after Monday's game that lineups don't matter:

“The lineup has nothing to do with it.  Fans have a good time with it, but it’s who plays, not really where they hit. There’s a little edge you can pick up here and there, but in the end it’s who plays…it’s who plays and how they executed."

This quote, coming from a man, who has used 31 different lineups in 39 games (once again, I must cite Mr. Miklasz and his latest blog). 

The problem with the lineup isn't about where Pujols hits.  It isn't about where Holliday hits. 

The problem is where Ryan Ludwick and Colby Rasmus hit.

Colby Rasmus

In Monday's lineup, Rasmus hit behind Pujols in the number 5 slot in the order.  Rasmus is a nice 5 hitter, with 7 HR's and 17 RBI's on the season, he has plenty of pop to provide Pujols some protection.  But, Rasmus swings left-handed. Anybody that has watched baseball in St. Louis over the past 14 seasons must know that Tony La Russa does not think that left-handed batters can hit off of left-handed pitchers. 

So why is this a problem? 

Imagine a tie ball game in the 8th inning and Pujols comes to the plate with a runner on and two outs.  Would the opposing manager in their right mind pitch to Pujols?  Probably not.  They much rather take their chances with Rasmus.  The opposing manager also just so happen to have a left-handed specialist in the pen ready and warm. 

Would La Russa pull his young CF for a right handed bat?  Would he pinch-hit for the 5 place hitter in the lineup of a tie ball game, a player put in that position to drive in runs and has proven that he can do so? 

The answer is YES!  And we have proof (check the box score here).  On Saturday against the Cininnati Reds in the 8th inning, Rasmus came up to face LH reliever Arthur Rhodes. The Cardinals had a one run lead and man on second with two outs.  La Russa called back the young slugger and sent up Joe Mather, a career .235 hitter. 

YES!  La Russa pulled his best defensive outfielder in a one run game for a career .235 hitter just to "play the match-up."  The manager displayed absolutely zero confidence that the youngster could put together a good at-bat in a late inning, high pressure situation.  

La Russa has to know that hitting behind Albert Pujols will provide plenty of similar, high pressure situations throughout a 162 game season. 

So will this trend continue?  Would La Russa do this in other situations?  All evidence suggests YES. 

Which is why this lineup will not work.  It will not work unless Ryan Ludwick is hitting behind Albert Pujols. 

Yes, I realize that Ludwick has produced in the 2-hole hitting in front of Pujols and hit the go-ahead homerun Tuesday night hitting in the second spot, but a manger so inclined to playing the match-ups must protect against his own inclination of over-managing. 

Its not a knock against Rasmus.  Its not a complete knock against La Russa, as there is reason he has won so many games.  But if a player is good enough to start the game hitting 5th, but he is not going to be allowed to hit against left-handed relievers, than he can not provide the protection that Albert Pujols and this lineup needs, especially with Holliday hitting in the 3-hole. 

Hit Ludwick behind Albert.  Hit Rasmus 2nd, or 6th, or 7th, or even 8th, like the manager has many times when a lefty has started. 

Yes Tony.  You can't deny it.  Lineups (and match-ups) are very important to you.  Don't insult our intelligence. 

Three Nights in August: Strategy, Heartbreak, and Joy Inside the Mind of a Manager