Nearly half way through the NFL schedule and sitting at 17-9-1 against the line presented over at Bodog.com, I am feeling pretty good about our performance against the spread.
A couple of problems have presented themselves over the course of the season though, including:
1. I haven't picked games in 2 weeks, so I'm a little rusty.
2. Improved teams like the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Bucs, and St. Louis Rams make it increasingly difficult to pick favored teams.
3. Some of the top teams just aren't very good. Nonetheless, and especially since this isn't "real money" we must pick 3 games from a NFL Week 9 schedule that is scary for the odds makers. Lets give it a try.
(6-1) New England Patriots vs (2-5) Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Bill Belicheck and Eric Mangini do not get along. Everybody knows that.
"I think everything takes care of itself over time," Mangini said. "He's had a lot to focus on, I've had a lot to focus on so it's just one of those things right now."
What few people do know though is how much Mangini's Brown have improved over the course of the season. Yes, the Browns are only 2-5 on the season, but the team plays stingy defense and has played one of the tougher schedules in the league.
I know that Belicheck loves killing his former protege, but going on the road is tough for any NFL team, even the Patriots. I think the Pats squeak by, but I have a hard time believing the will cover. New England 23 Cleveland 20
(5-2) Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs (5-2) Atlanta Falcons
Who would've thought that the Bucs and Falcons would be playing for first place half way through the season?
Tampa Bay head coach Raheem Morris doesn't have any doubt.
"We're the best team in the NFC," he said before the Bucs headed into their bye. "Yeah, I said it. We're the best team in the NFC. I really believe it. If you don't, no one ever will. That's what we are doing right now. I'm believing in this young football team, they are believing in their young head coach and we are believing together."
Its great to see an up and coming team be so confident.
The problem is, they will be humbled very quickly by Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and the Atlanta Falcons, who are a perfect 3-0 at home in the Georgia Dome. Look for the Falcons to stay that way as they will crush the Bucs on Sunday. Atlanta 38 Tampa Bay 13
(5-2) Kansas City Chiefs (+1) vs (4-4) Oakland Raiders
Talk about surprises.
The Oakland Raiders are 2nd in the NFL in points scored this season with 212, largely in part due to a running game led by Darren McFadden.
The Kansas City Chiefs, on the other hand, are 4th in the NFL in points allowed, with just 122.
The fact that the Chiefs are in first place in the AFC West and that the Raiders are the team trailing right behind is shocking to even Raiders and Chiefs fans.
Match-ups between these two proud fan-bases have been blood baths in the past. Don't expect this contest to be much different.
I like the Raiders in this one. Their running attack is legit and they are coming into this game with momentum after two impressive victories. Oakland 24 Kansas City 17
There you have it. Look for the Raiders, Browns, and Falcons to cover their point spread this weekend.
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